The Business of Numismatics: May 2024 Greysheet Editor's Letter

In last month’s column I highlighted the price action of the gold spot price, and since that writing it has been more of the same, getting all the way to a peak of just about $2,324 per ounce. Important to note, however, is that the wider equity market has been following a similar trajectory. Remarkably, the month of March saw the S&P 500 index set eight new closing highs, and year to date the index is up more than 10%. Despite this buying, there is still a substantial amount of cash sitting outside of the market because fixed income yields are still relatively high. Another unexpected fact: since the year 2000, gold has remarkably outperformed the S&P 500 index: over the past 23 years and change, the Dow Jones Commodity Index Gold has generated a return of 8%, versus the S&P 500 with a total return over the same time period of 7.4%.

Reviewing recent auction activity and wholesale trading at our recent Whitman Baltimore Expo, the coin market seems to be riding on the back of this wider momentum. In the final days of March Heritage held a Signature U.S. coin auction, and the sale was led by an example of the famous key date 1921 Saint-Gaudens certified PCGS MS62. Selling for the all-in price of $144,000, it narrowly set a new record for the grade. Back in February 2010 an NGC MS62 brought $143,750. In more recent times, the last PCGS MS62 sold in January 2021 for just over $93,000. The price realized in March is nicely framed by two more recent sales, that of an NGC MS61 in August 2022 for $120,283 and a PCGS MS63 in May 2022 at a strong $312,000. The one outlier price for a 1921 Saint is for a PCGS MS63+ last May for $288,000. The Heritage sale featured another four six-figure lots.

Around the same time period, Stack’s Bowers held their first major U.S. coin auction of the year, their annual Spring Showcase sale. Two coins tied for the highest price for a regular-issue coin at $840,000 (a medal topped everything at $900,000.) One of these top lots is a coin that has received a lot of attention the past two years, the 1870-CC Liberty Head double eagle. A coin that is unknown in true mint state, the example sold in March is PCGS AU50. Nearly two and a half years ago a PCGS AU53 stunned when selling for $1.62 million, and then in April 2022 a PCGS/CAC XF45 brought $810,000. The most important aspect of these realized prices is the fact that despite its rarity there has been nine different 1870-CC $20’s offered over the past three years, all trading hands for mid-to-high six figures. Traditional thinking would be that this would cause prices to soften, but it is clear that there are numerous collectors wishing to own one. Whether or not this is proof of an expanded buyer base for high value rarities, it is certainly a positive sign for the U.S. coin market overall.

Elsewhere in the Spring Showcase auction, an 1803 Small 8 Draped Bust half dime impressed at an even $90,000. Graded PCGS/CAC AU58, it sold for just under $50,000 in 2015 when part of the Pogue Collection. Territorial and Pioneer gold has been making noise lately, with fierce competition for these historic and scarce pieces. While there is really no such thing as a common type or issuer in this series, even the more regularly seen coins have been steadily bringing higher prices. One such piece that is not regularly seen is the 1860 Mormon $5 “Lion and Beehive” piece. An example in a PCGS AU50 holder with a CAC sticker of approval sold for $126,000, by far a record for the grade. In January of last year an NGC AU50 sold for $52,800, and the price from March approaches previous prices in the MS62 range.

Overall, the past month and a half has been positive for the numismatic market and there is a little bit of cash sloshing around once again.